KPMG has revised its own residential outlook, and the direction of the revision matters more than the headline number. National house values are now forecast to fall 1.1 per cent across 2026, a downgrade from the firm's earlier call, while unit prices are still expected to rise 2.2 per cent.
The unit and house numbers moving in opposite directions is the more interesting story here. It points to a market where affordability pressure is doing more to shape outcomes than any single interest rate decision. Buyers priced out of houses are landing in units rather than leaving the market altogether, which is a very different signal to broad based buyer withdrawal.
KPMG's own 2027 forecast has both segments turning positive again, houses up 3.4 per cent, units up 3.7 per cent, which frames 2026 as a correction agents need to manage through rather than a structural reset to plan around long term. For principals fielding vendor questions about timing, that distinction, correction versus reset, is worth having ready before the conversation starts, not during it.
A downgrade is not a crash. Vendors asking which one this is deserve a straight answer, not a sales pitch.
This article was independently written and edited by Real Estate Today. © Real Estate Today 2026 – All Rights Reserved.
Real Estate Today is an independent real estate industry publication covering Australia and New Zealand.
THE-RET experience
The Morning Brief
The essential real estate briefing with Jake & Mia.
From 5:30am every weekday.
The 7:30 Report
The day's property news, context and what comes next with Dan & Sarah.
Five nights a week.
Trending
ActivePipe by MoxiWorks Joins Real Estate Today as Major Partner
Industry News
Three heavyweights, one network: Eastern suburbs rivalry heats up
Industry News
The Truth Hurts, But Read This Anyway
Network News
Harcourts Solutions Golf Day raises $13,000 for Mitchelton Special School
Community
What Actually Makes a Healthy Real Estate Office? The Numbers Beyond GCI
Opinion
