When Data Isn't Enough: Why Great Leaders Must Trust Their Gut

Heather Edwards, Harcourts SA CEO, on a peculiar feeling

What if I told you that some of the most successful decisions I've made as CEO came not from spreadsheets or market analyses, but from that peculiar feeling in my stomach that whispered, "This is right"?

In an era where we're drowning in data and analytics, this might sound like heresy. But after two decades in real estate and a year of leading Harcourts South Australia, I've learned something that business schools don't teach: sometimes, your gut knows what your graphs cannot tell you.

The Data Trap We've All Fallen Into

Don't get me wrong—I'm not anti-data. Far from it. Market trends, customer insights, and performance metrics are crucial tools in our arsenal. But somewhere along the line, we've developed an unhealthy obsession with having every piece of information before we act.

I see it constantly in boardrooms across Adelaide and beyond. Leaders paralysed by the quest for complete certainty, teams endlessly analysing while opportunities slip away, and decisions delayed until the "perfect" dataset materialises (spoiler alert: it never does).

The harsh reality? In high-level leadership, you will never have all the information you need. Never. And waiting for it is often the most dangerous decision of all.

Why Your Intuition Isn't Just "Feeling Lucky"

Let's clear something up straightaway. When I talk about trusting your gut, I'm not advocating for reckless gambling or ignoring evidence entirely. Intuition in leadership isn't mystical—it's the culmination of years of experience, pattern recognition, and subconscious processing that happens faster than your analytical mind can keep up.

Think about it this way: your brain is constantly absorbing information—body language in meetings, subtle market shifts, the energy in your team's communications. Your intuition is simply your mind's way of synthesising all this data, including things you can't easily quantify.

In real estate, I've seen agents who can walk into a property and immediately sense whether it'll sell quickly, despite what the comparable sales data suggests. They're not psychic—they're picking up on dozens of subtle cues that don't show up in spreadsheets.

The Small Stuff Syndrome

Here's where many leaders trip up: they try to apply the same analytical rigour to every decision, regardless of its magnitude. This is exhausting and counterproductive.

When you're operating at a senior level, your energy and attention are finite resources. If you're agonising over every minor decision—which vendor to use for office supplies or whether to approve a $200 expense—you'll have nothing left for the decisions that truly matter.

I've learned to categorise decisions into three buckets:

• Big bets: These deserve thorough analysis and careful consideration

• Reversible decisions: These can be made quickly and adjusted if needed

• Irreversible but low-stakes decisions: Trust your gut and move on

  
  

The magic happens when you stop sweating the small stuff and reserve your mental energy for what really counts.

Building a Culture That Embraces Calculated Risk

One of the biggest challenges I face is helping my team understand that imperfect decisions made with good intentions are often better than perfect decisions made too late. This requires a fundamental shift in how we think about failure and risk.

Here's what I tell my team: I trust that you will always have the intention of doing the right thing. 

This simple statement is remarkably powerful. It gives people permission to act without perfect information, knowing they have my backing if things don't go to plan.

When someone makes a decision that doesn't work out, we don't ask, "Why didn't you get more data first?" We ask, "What did you learn, and how do we apply that learning moving forward?" This subtle shift encourages calculated risk-taking rather than paralysis.

When Gut Feelings and Data Clash

Of course, there are times when your intuition and the data point in different directions. This is where leadership gets genuinely challenging. I've found a few strategies helpful:

Question your assumptions: Sometimes our "gut feeling" is actually unconscious bias. Take a step back and examine what's really driving your intuition.

Consider the cost of being wrong: If the data suggests one path but your gut suggests another, think about the consequences of each potential mistake.

Test when possible: Can you run a small pilot or trial to validate your hunch without betting the farm?

Trust your track record: If your intuitive decisions have generally served you well, that's data in itself.

The Confidence to Lead Forward

Perhaps the most important lesson I've learned is this: your team needs you to make decisions with confidence, even when—especially when—you don't have all the answers. Indecision is contagious, and it's more damaging than making the occasional imperfect choice.

I remember a situation earlier this year when we had to decide quickly whether to expand into a new market segment. The research was incomplete, the timing felt rushed, and half my team wanted to wait for more data. But something told me we needed to move. We did, and whilst it wasn't perfect, that decision opened doors we wouldn't have had otherwise.

Moving Beyond Analysis Paralysis

So how do you start trusting your gut without abandoning good judgement entirely?

Start small: Practice making quick decisions on low-stakes issues. Build your confidence in trusting your instincts.

Reflect regularly: Keep a decision journal. Note when you followed your gut versus when you relied purely on data, and track the outcomes.

Create decision frameworks: Develop clear criteria for when you'll rely more heavily on intuition versus analysis.

Build diverse perspectives: Surround yourself with people who think differently. Sometimes their gut feelings will complement or challenge your own.

Accept imperfection: Remember that making a good decision quickly is often better than making a perfect decision slowly.

Your Invitation to Lead with Confidence

Leadership isn't about having all the answers—it's about being willing to make decisions and take action when others cannot or will not. The most successful leaders I know have learned to dance between data and intuition, using both as tools in their decision-making toolkit.

The question isn't whether you should trust your gut or follow the data. The question is: are you confident enough to make decisions when you don't have perfect information, and wise enough to know when your experience and instincts are telling you something your spreadsheets cannot?

It's time to embrace intuition and lead with confidence. Your team, your organisation, and your market are waiting for leaders who can move with both wisdom and speed. The data will never be complete, but your leadership doesn't have to wait.

Trust yourself. You know more than you think you do.