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‘This is impacting people’s lives’: Tom Panos warns of growing pressure on real estate agents
Tom Panos highlights mounting pressure on Australian real estate agents as transaction volumes decline. Read expert insights on the industry's outlook today.
One of Australian real estate’s most recognisable trainers and auctioneers has delivered a sobering assessment of current market conditions, warning that the pressure is moving well beyond property prices and increasingly being felt by the people whose livelihoods depend on transactions.
Tom Panos took to social media over the weekend after what he described as a difficult Saturday in the field, using his regular market wrap to raise concerns about lower transaction volumes, agent numbers, buyer confidence and growing pressure across the broader real estate ecosystem.
His message was unusually direct.
“I’m going to say something that some people in real estate won’t want to hear,” he began, before saying he was not currently seeing evidence that the property market was improving.
The comments followed a Saturday in which he had three auctions scheduled.
Two were withdrawn before auction, while the remaining Croydon property attracted several bidders and reached close to $2.5 million before falling short of the vendor’s expectations.
That left the veteran auctioneer with a zero-from-three result for the day.
But he was quick to make clear that his concern extended far beyond one Saturday.
“This isn't about just one auctioneer having a bad Saturday,” he said.
‘A lot of pain’
It was when the discussion moved from property prices to the people working within real estate that the message became considerably more serious.
“Real estate agents, mortgage brokers, and that whole ecosystem now are officially in a lot of pain,” he said.
Tom pointed to Western Sydney as one example of what he believes prolonged lower transaction volumes are beginning to do to the industry.
He said he had been told that around nine months ago there were approximately 1,600 agents operating across one part of the Parramatta and Western Sydney market.
According to the information relayed to him following a more recent count, that number had fallen by about 400.
“That's approximately one in four agents has gone,” he said.
Rather than focusing purely on the headline number, his concern was what sits behind it.
He said agents could initially withstand a slowdown because commissions from earlier transactions were still reaching their bank accounts.
As lower volumes continued, however, the financial impact inevitably began catching up.
“This downturn is impacting people's lives,” he said.
“This downturn isn't just affecting property prices. It's affecting the transactions. It's affecting the commissions. It's affecting businesses.
“And it's also affecting livelihoods.”
The pressure, he said, was also influencing the way he approached his own auction work.
Where a vendor agreed, Tom said he would look for opportunities to pass auctions to other auctioneers.
“I feel for my colleagues,” he said.
Pressure spreading beyond the major capitals
Tom said the weakness he was seeing was no longer confined to Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, pointing to softer conditions across a wider section of the Australian market.
He also warned against reading too much into isolated strong results or a particularly busy open home.
A good weekend, he argued, was not necessarily evidence of a broader recovery.
His concern was what happens when lower transaction volumes continue for months rather than weeks.
For agents, that means fewer commissions. For brokers, fewer loans. For auctioneers, fewer bookings. And for agency businesses, greater pressure on revenue and staffing.
Not calling it irreversible
Despite the seriousness of the update, the message was not one of surrender.
Tom stressed that he did not believe Australia had to remain in its current position and argued that policy decisions could play a role in rebuilding confidence.
He proposed reconsidering elements of negative gearing, including allowing Australians to negative gear up to three investment properties while placing a limit on larger-scale accumulation.
He also suggested retaining the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount for residential property held for more than 10 years, arguing that tax settings should encourage longer-term ownership rather than short-term speculation.
A third proposal involved reviewing rules governing self-managed super funds and residential property investment, with appropriate safeguards.
Those ideas will inevitably attract differing views.
But his broader point was that current conditions were not permanent.
“The situation, it's not irreversible,” he said.
“Government policy can help shape the environment we're in, and government policy can help shape the recovery.”
‘This is not the market to disappear’
For agents, his strongest advice was not to retreat.
“This is not the market to disappear,” he said.
Instead, he urged agents to sharpen their skills, improve their conversations, prospect harder and increase their focus on finding stock.
In a market where not everything sells, he said agents would also need more stock than they may have required during stronger conditions.
And the quality of the conversation with a vendor becomes increasingly important.
“Telling vendors the truth early becomes your competitive advantage,” he said.
For sellers, his advice was similarly straightforward: if a property has to be sold, it needs to be priced for the market that exists today, not the market the owner remembers.
Buyers may increasingly find opportunities, he said, but should also be cautious about assuming today's price represents the bottom.
Even if property values become cheaper, further movement in interest rates could change how much a buyer is actually able to borrow.
What it means
The significance of Tom’s weekend update goes well beyond where property prices move next.
When transaction volumes remain subdued for an extended period, the effect moves through the entire industry.
Agents feel it through commissions. Auctioneers see fewer bookings. Mortgage brokers write fewer loans. Agency businesses face greater pressure on costs and staffing.
For agents, the message was clear: tougher conditions place a greater premium on prospecting, stock generation, stronger vendor conversations and honest advice.
And perhaps the strongest point from the weekend was also the simplest.
Behind every market statistic are businesses and people whose livelihoods depend on transactions continuing to happen.
“This downturn is impacting people's lives.”
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